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Why the Fed's rate cuts won't help you
March 24th, 2008 8:42 AM

Why the Fed's rate cuts won't help you

In its efforts to keep irresponsible bankers on Wall Street afloat, the Federal Reserve is spurring inflation, crippling the dollar and cutting into retirees' incomes. And mortgages and car loans won't get any cheaper.

This Is By Jon Markman:  www.jonmarkman.com  

The Federal Reserve attempt to get out in front of the worst financial crisis to hit the world banking system in five decades by slashing short-term interest rates from their current perch at 3% to the lowest levels in years.

But its effort will have little effect on the ability of the average American to get a cheap loan for a new home, car or college education even as it has a large effect on U.S. banks' ability to fix their balance sheets by racking up fat profits.

If that sounds unfair, welcome to the latest episode of a brutal new American business ethic, in which the government bails out bad bets by risk-taking banking executives in New York with money that it borrows from middle-class families and foreign investors. The effort is gilded with fancy financial language and cloaked in the guise of a rescue that helps all citizens, but the reality is that Washington is essentially robbing the poor to help the rich.

It seems odd, but these are extraordinary times. Normally, when the Federal Reserve cuts the rate at which it lends money to U.S. banks, those banks in turn cut the rates at which they lend money to citizens and companies for personal and commercial use. Simple enough. Yet in the past few months, banks have made three important changes in their usual practice:

They have not been passing all of their interest-rate savings to customers.

They have restricted lending only to most creditworthy, documented applicants.

They have cut the total amount they're willing to lend.

Good for banks, bad for you

Banks are taking these seemingly perverse steps in an effort to reverse the effects of the massive losses they have withstood for lending too broadly to consumers and companies with lousy credit over the past five years.

They're pulling a big 180, which is as confusing as it is disheartening.

Rather than providing funds to prospective home buyers and business people with legitimate needs for moving into larger homes or expanding factory lines, records show the banks are hoarding the low-cost money they're borrowing from the Fed and investing it in Treasury bonds paying higher interest yields. They're then pocketing the windfall profits to repair their own ravaged balance sheets.

As if that's not bad enough, the Fed's swiftly conceived, unprecedented course of action harms the public in three other ways:

It boosts inflation by lifting the total number of dollars in circulation.

It undercuts the attractiveness of the U.S. dollar, which leads to higher food, energy and gold prices.

It cuts the yields of dividend-paying investments such as government bonds upon which retirees depend for steady income.

In other words, the Fed action helps imprudent bankers dig out of a hole by putting prudent citizens and foreigners in one. This gives big financial businesses a shot at staving off disaster at the risk of cutting the spending and earning power of everyone else.


Posted by Margo Murray on March 24th, 2008 8:42 AMPost a Comment (0)

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resales of U.S. Homes and Condos rose....
March 28th, 2008 7:03 PM
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Boosted by a record decline in prices, the U.S. housing market showed signs of stability in February, with sales of existing homes rising modestly for the first time in seven months and inventories falling, the National Association of Realtors reported Monday.
Resales of U.S. homes and condos rose 2.9% to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 5.03 million, ahead of the 4.85 million pace expected by economists surveyed by MarketWatch. See Economic Calendar.
It's the strongest sales pace since October. Sales are down 23.8% compared with a year ago.
"We seem to be finding a bottom in home sales even as prices keep falling," wrote Joel Naroff, president of Naroff Economic Advisers. An economist for Wachovia greeted the news with "cautious optimism."  Listen to the interview with economist Adam York.
Inventories of unsold homes fell 3% to 4.03 million, representing a 9.6-month supply at the February sales pace. Inventories are not seasonally adjusted, but a decline from January to February is unusual, the Realtors said. Read more from the NAR.
Inventories remain too high, but are moving in the right direction, wrote Tony Crescenzi, chief bond market strategist for Miller Tabak & Co. "While still about 1.5 million above normal, when combined with the 200,000 decline in the supply of unsold new homes, it is obvious that the trend in inventory levels is moving more favorable now."
The median sales price plunged to $195,900, down 8.2% from a year earlier, the largest price decline recorded since the Realtors began tracking both single-family homes and condos in 1999. Prices of single-family homes fell 8.7% in the past year, also the most since the records began in 1968.
Since the credit crunch first hit in August, resales have been "stuck" in a narrow range around 5 million, said Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the real estate agents' trade group.
Sales rose in three of four regions, with the West still lagging. Sales rose 11.3% in the Northeast, 2.5% in the Midwest and 2.1% in the South. Sales fell 1.1% in the West.
Median sales prices are down 13.4% in the West, largely because the market for jumbo loans above $417,000 remains frozen, Yun said.
The median sales prices can be affected by the mix of homes sold regionally and within different price ranges. Two other home price indexes that track resales of the same home over time will be released on Tuesday.
Sales of single-family homes rose 2.8% in February to 4.47 million, the second increase in a row and the fastest sales pace since August. Inventories of unsold single-family homes fell 5.5% to 3.43 million, a 9.2-month supply.
Sales of condos rose 3.7% in February to 560,000 annualized. Condo sales are down 29.7% in the past year. Inventories of unsold condos rose 14% to 604,000, a 13-month supply.
The Commerce Department will report on sales of new homes on Wednesday, with economists looking for a decline to 575,000 annualized sales from 588,000. End of Story
Rex Nutting is Washington bureau chief of MarketWatch.

Posted by Margo Murray on March 28th, 2008 7:03 PMPost a Comment (0)

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Existing home sales gained 2.9% in February
March 28th, 2008 6:43 PM

MONDAY, March 24th

Existing home sales gained 2.9% in February to an annual pace of 5.03 million units. The increase in home sales last month breaks a six-month string of declines. While the increase in sales last month is encouraging, economists at NAR are not expecting significant recovery until the second half of this year, when higher loan limits, along with monetary and fiscal stimulus will unleash pent-up demand. In the meantime, the housing correction will continue as rising defaults and foreclosures push inventories higher and accelerate price declines.

The Fed’s next rate move remains uncertain at this time. Policy decisions will be fluid depending on downside risks to growth and the state of credit markets. After an upside surprise in existing home sales, fed funds futures traders are currently pricing in a 60% probability of a 50 basis point rate cut when the FOMC meets at the end of April, down from a 71% chance earlier this morning.


Posted by Margo Murray on March 28th, 2008 6:43 PMPost a Comment (0)

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